world of tanks power leveling because consume growth of output of growth prep above - KFG

Macroscopical economy is added fast glide will bring about produce demand attenuation. 2011 when second half of the year, not only busy season of demand of white sugar the end of the year is young at anticipating, low confusing condition is even before several years place did not see, the occurrence busy season of the different level such as oil plants of strong wheat of such as of market of other agriculture products, corn, cotton, grease not flourishing phenomenon, cotton even annual demand is fatigued and weak. Below current and macroscopical setting, consider respective supply and demand is main face, predict next moving to produce futures price moved general of centre of gravity 2012. Cotton period cotton price dropped 2011 very much, range is very big, basically answer spit went up entirely 2010. With respect to supply and demand character, because establish cotton cost rose 2011, add the government to close store, can have to the cotton price 2012 prop up certainly. But the refreshment of whole market is not easy thing however, high cost hard smooth conduct to downstream industry it is a main reason. Actually, pily inventory does not calculate tall, but because of middleman, production business lacks filling goods passion, so that cotton is supplied comfortable. And because crop increases,pattern of relatively comfortable supply and demand is not, because demand is exhausted,lose however. Downstream spin industry is fatigued and weak to pily demand. 2012, downstream spin industry whether somewhat improvement will still be focus of pily market attention. Predict 2012 before first quarter, the government closes store basically will prop up an element into cotton of by a definite date. If purchase and sale of city of cotton of spring demand busy season restores in former years normal level, be expected to drive cotton price to rebound. April is the crucial period with establish cotton certain apiration, add the statistical law that decreases one year one year according to pily crop, give attention to two or morethings arrives the reality with cotton grower and trafficker earnings not quite high 2011 level, predict 2012 establish cotton apiration or relatively reduced somewhat 2011. Reflect this logic estimation, cotton price look forward to is firm first quarter 2012 rebound situation or will continue to the summer. Focus of market of second half of the year will change policy face and consumption to the face 2012, include the government closed 2011 store inventory if spending of industry of fluctuant world of tanks power leveling, downstream spin has policy of where buy, imports and exports deny get warm again after a cold spell to wait to want to give attention. White sugar 2011/2012 extracts season candy city to will enter increase production cycle, completely state-owned latent capacity exceeds the 11.5 million tons prospective yield level at the beginning of November, achieve 12 million tons. This is meant extract season newly to will have 100 �� 1.5 million tons of increase production. Nevertheless, in extracting season initial stage to still produce a course in white sugar, specific amplitude is not affirmatory. When although be accused up to our newspaper,be being finished, weather condition is pretty good still, but the crises that city of candy of the beginning of the year returned �� of the end of the year to did not cast off weather to affect 2012 2011. No matter how, because of increase production reason, extract season candy city newly to supply tight situation to be able to alleviate necessarily. Extract season candy city newly the biggest obstacle is macroscopical economy is added fast glide. Increase production cycle encounters candy city demand adds fast attenuation, go against sugar price to go situation. In addition, price of raw sugar period is supplied possibly also because of the whole world increase and gradually be issued to lower levels. This will restrict domestic sugar price, even if is to be in rate of be issued to lower levels of price of raw sugar period falls slow at the circumstance of domestic sugar price also is such. Because the high price of price of domestic and international sugar differs condition general to come as cycle of increase production of domestic candy city, supply pattern to change direction comfortable and need position to low gradually, negative even price differs condition evolution, this also means domestic sugar price opposite raw sugar has period price bigger drop space. Be like this only, the farther dilate that ability slow down imports. Respect of oil soya-bean oil, because consume growth of output of growth prep above, bring about global soya-bean oil period end inventory decreases, and inventory is consumed come than achieving a the last few years new low, cause global soya-bean oil to supply relatively tight situation; And because crop reduces extent to exceed consumption to reduce scope,rapeseed oil is, bring about global rapeseed oil period end inventory decreases, inventory spending falls continuously than also appearing, global rapeseed oil is supplied be in relatively tight situation; Nevertheless, as it happens of palm oil circumstance is contrary. Palm oil output grows prep above to consume growth, cause global palm oil period end inventory increases, achieve be next to 2009/2010 level of perch of single-page calendar history world of tanks power leveling, situation of in short supply of on one year also is improved somewhat. Soya-bean oil and rapeseed oil all are in supply relatively tight situation, only situation of palm oil in short supply is improved somewhat, so oily whole of plant of new year whole world is in in supplying tight situation, basically be being reflected is global vegetable oil period end inventory and inventory consumption glide than continueing. Nevertheless, although vegetable oil supplies the whole world to still slant,tighten, but breed structure sex splits up or will make soya-bean oil and rapeseed oil go situation is opposite palm oil is some stronger. Just, on home market, vegetable oil is supplied want than global market however comfortable, because although domestic plant oily requirement still is in,grow steadily,basically be, but home supplies growth to outstrip demand growth however, cause period end inventory to increase somewhat. Also supply because of domestic vegetable oil relatively comfortable, domestic plant oily futures goes situation also will lose price of the futures outside Yu Hai. Additional, market attention focus is centered at weather and policy two levels. Weather respect, pulled Nina phenomenon to cause South America to produce area drought likely first quarter 2012, cause certain effect to Argentine per unit area yield especially. In the meantime, 2012 palm oil crop is possible first quarter level sex drops, but later trend of increase production of palm oil crop will continue. Policy respect, close as soja and colza store the price rises, will promote a plant oil especially the price centre of gravity of rapeseed oil. Nevertheless, lay in in view of domestic vegetable oil enough, period price rises extent will suffer apparently be restricted. The place on put together is narrated, centre of gravity of price of domestic plant oily futures or will fall move, but the whole world is supplied still slant tight situation limitation drops space. Accordingly, predicting soya-bean oil basically runs interval to be 7700 �� 10000 yuan / ton, palm oil basically runs interval to be 7000 �� 8700 yuan / ton, rapeseed oil basically runs interval to be 8600 �� 10300 yuan / ton. From time cycle and seasonal look, as a result of Lanina the phenomenon is opposite first quarter palm oil and Argentine soja or influential wot power leveling, soya-bean oil and palm oil may be relatively driving. 2 quarters market pays close attention to a focus to center Yu Meidou to cultivate the hype of the area, rapeseed oil to buy policy to anticipate, vegetable oil formed 5 �� easily June seasonal high point. 3 quarters appear on the market as beautiful beans and domestic rapeseed and palm oil is seasonal increase production, supply pressure or will make vegetable oil slow drop. Four quarters come as consumptive busy season, vegetable oil will appear seasonal rise. Responsibility edits: NF050